Election day prediction

No matter who wins we will have:

  1. Socialized medicine, as we’ve had for the last 50 years for, at least, a third of the country. It’s been tried. Costs have sky-rocketed at the same rate as the government take-over. Republicans, if they gain majorities, will not do anything to change this direction. They will scant free enterprise and make exceptions for special circumstances. That is real American exceptionalism. Remember the Republican chant, “don’t you touch my Medicare”? They will just congratulate each other and act like the party that was rejected.
  2. Social Security. Dumb-ass citizens will demand payment of their “investment”, even though it was a ponzi scheme from the beginning and no-one ever pretended otherwise. It is just more fun to order the super-size fries or rent a movie than to put that savings aside for when we get too feeble to work. A safety net that is not used doesn’t exist. Balzwall!
  3. Interventionism. We will continue to be asked(forced) to make things right according to American values all over the world. There are varied opinions of what is right in each country we “help.” Those who don’t agree with the values/culture we wish to ram down their throats will be our enemies. They will hate us. They will attack us. There are already plenty of bad people who would choose us as an enemy without us poking a hornets’ nest with a stick. We will continue to add to those numbers. Those who disagree will be called unpatiotic. See: as Hermann Goering said at the Nuremberg Trials-

Why, of course, the people don’t want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don’t want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.
Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.
Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.

Joni Ernst says she wants to eliminate the EPA but she allows John McCain on her bus. Limited government, imperial government. Sounds good. Go with it.

It is politics and explains why people don’t vote. Funny how Nuremberg is mentioned in the same post as McCain.


4 responses to “Election day prediction

  1. I would agree that if, by some quirk, the GOP takes the Senate and adds to their majority in the House, nothing much will change, especially regarding domestic policy.

    From an international standpoint, in fact, things could get worse than they already are. The Republican Party that will take power is less well-regarded by the electorate than the Democratic Party losing it. The new majority leader is likely to be Mitch McConnell, who is about as popular as Harry Reid. The principal foreign policy voices in the new Senate will be Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Bob Corker from Tennessee, who is slated to become chairman of foreign relations. All are interventionists; all are hawks.

    But will the GOP take the Senate and add to their House majority? I think it is, at best, a fifty-fifty proposition for the following reasons:

    1) The media: As a politician, if you have the media on your side, you are already at least 51% of the way to winning any election. And Republicans enjoy marginal support from Fox Cable News and a bit more support from conservative talk radio. But these media are watched or heard by a small minority of the voting public.

    2) GOP cowardice: Republicans are paralyzed by a political cowardice that makes them reluctant to fight fire with fire. From election to election they are afraid to hold Democrats morally accountable for what they actually stand for and for what they have done. This election is no different. And when one brave Republican does take a stand, it is ignored by the media and few voters will ever hear the arguments.

    3) Democrats, the “compassion” party: Democrats, with the abiding and devoted assistance from the media, have convinced much of the electorate that they represent the political party of kindness, the party that cares. Republicans don’t argue how deceptive this claim truly is, but sit passively while they are branded as the party of the wealthy, of the Wall Street fat cats who embrace no concerns for the poor or for society’s less fortunate members

    4) Public education: Sixty years of teaching students that it only matters how they “feel” about issues. Critical thinking as a skill has been redacted from the syllabus of learning in our public schools. The result is that problems are addressed with actions and then only the outcome is imagined. No consideration is given to the unintended consequences of the actions or even if the action makes sense. If the outcome feels right, then it must be a good action. Thus, the typical voter doesn’t want to be bothered with details as to why initiatives or policies have failed, or are failing. There’s another problem identified that needs action.

    5) Demographics: The country’s demographics are even more favorable to day for the Democrat Party of compassion than they were in 2012. People will vote in their own self-interest and for too many Americans that self-interest is in part, or largely, tied to one or more government assistance programs. All we hear about Republicans is that they want to cap or cut Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, education, housing, income security, food stamps, or repeal Obamacare. And the President accuses them of pillaging the programs of the working and middle class while protecting Wall Street and the 1 percent. Republicans have had no rebuttals to these accusations, at least none that have been heard (the media again).

    6) The Stock Market: The only investment area today that offers any sort of meaningful return on one’s savings is the stock market. And that investment vehicle, while volatile, is once again at new highs. Again, people vote in their own self-interest and from all appearances, the administration has been good for the stock market. I might also mention the recent, and somewhat dramatic, decline in fuel prices, mostly the result of the quickly expanding fracking operations in the U.S.

    7) Change: Not nearly a sufficient number of people in the country are experiencing the levels of economic hardships that would prompt an eager wholesale change in the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the federal government. Same can be stated for medical hardships that have been continually forecasted by the GOP to emanate from Obamacare. Republicans have repeated predicted an Obamacare-driven situation of horrendous cost burdens to American families who will also, and allegedly, witness a decimation of the availability of prescription drugs and therapeutic medical procedures and surgeries. All of this will perhaps be forthcoming, but it is not a wide experience, as yet, for the American voter. As such, people typically resist change unless some aspect of their self-interest is in jeopardy. Thus, the forces that drive a desire for wholesale changes within the ranks of our political representatives simply don’t exist and so the American voter possibly has little appetite for change.

    8) Lastly, voter fraud: The Democrats have perfected this tool of ballot stuffing, especially in key districts where races might be tight. We have all heard the clichés of “vote early and vote often.” We also see the reports of dead people voting and, of course, the many thousands of votes submitted by ineligible voters. And then there are the ballots being delivered to people who have never voted with the follow-up presence of a helpful Democrat precinct worker who either shows the voter which boxes to check or simply fills-out the ballot as a courtesy to the voter. I suspect that if we really knew the depth of this effort, the last presidential election should have undergone a voter fraud investigation. This election will be no different.

    So this election outcome may bring big surprises, but not necessarily the ones hoped-for by the Republicans. In fact, we may see that they will be lucky to hold the current ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the House and gain nothing in the Senate. Or, perhaps, with a bit of luck, pick-up a couple of Senate seats but still be the minority party.

    When I forecast outcomes of events like sporting games or political elections, I am often incorrect. I sincerely hope that this forecast will be no different.

    • It’s pretty sad that I would have to root for the Democrats if the alternative was these guys in charge of foreign policy. Like I’ve said before, foreign and domestic policy cannot be independent. They are both measures of the politician’s world view. If anybody calls McCain, Graham or Corker conservative it can’t be because they conserve, it has to be because they favor the status quo, which sucks.

      Something to add to Fred’s comment on the media is this: They are not stupid. They are Sergei Eisenstein times a billion. They reported Joni Ernst with a wide lead two days ago, then neck and neck today. First they mold opinion to hopelessness for Bailey, then they indicate a glimmer of hope, if only all the wards of the state will get off their recliners and give the caring, compassionate Bailey a chance to be the New Harkin. They are like fly fishermen plotting a reasoned strategy for the good of all mankind. It might be puppy love but it is genius.

      Republicans never state that the welfare state makes people poor because they are no different from Democrats. If they have the power they will use it… for the good of all mankind. Example 1. Why was Chris Stevens in Libya? Example 2. Drug war. They don’t believe we can make our own decisions.

      You are right in calling the election closer than portrayed. It is a get out the vote ploy.

      We went to Godfathers tonight to cheer on our friend, Shawn (who I pity and pray for) as he waits for results in his bid for state senate. I don’t know anyone more capable to rise above the politics and challenge federal intrusion or statism in general. He will surely open some eyes if the media lets his voice be heard.

      Fred. I will likely use some of your points in the next column analyzing the election. Where would I be without you?

      On Tue, Nov 4, 2014 at 4:22 PM, alternativebyfritz wrote:


      • Thanks for the kind remarks. Nice to see Joni Ernst a winner. Let’s see if her experience with castrating pigs carries over to significantly cutting pork during her time in the Senate.

        I was, happily, wrong about the forecast outcome of the election (and was hoping I would be wrong). I guess there still exists a modicum of a silent bunch of citizens who retain a degree of wisdom — and this despite an information media (news and entertainment) that consists of a vast majority of extraordinarily biased representatives.

      • We got a kick out of her calling them “hogs,” since no one ever calls them that relative to that job. She promised, early on, to try to eliminate (maybe she even left off the “try to” the EPA and Education Department. Let’s see if she does anything in that regard.

        McCain and Graham were both in Iowa stumping for her. We can only hope they hate her guts soon. I couldn’t think of a more appropriate badge of honor.

        On Thu, Nov 6, 2014 at 11:52 AM, alternativebyfritz wrote:


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